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On February 11 in Budapest, MCC and the Danube Institute co-organized a conference examining the situation of minorities in the Middle East and the broader geopolitical, migration and governance challenges shaping the region. Across panels and a keynote address, policymakers, scholars and practitioners debated the failure of post-1945 political models, the security dilemmas facing ethnic and religious minorities, and the limits of Western intervention.
The opening discussion argued that the Arab unitary republic model, designed to subsume diverse communities under a dominant majority identity, has often produced instability rather than cohesion. Panelists highlighted the existential risks facing Kurds, Copts, Assyrians and other minorities, reflected in the dramatic decline of Christian and Jewish populations in the region. Several speakers stressed that minority protection depends less on rhetoric and more on state capacity, enforceable law, and credible security guarantees.
In his keynote address, Dherar Belhoul Al Falasi, Former Speaker of the Federal National Council of the United Arab Emirates, presented the modernizing monarchic model as a governance-based solution. Using the United Arab Emirates as an example, he argued that public order, institutional continuity and a unifying national identity above sectarian politics are essential for protecting minorities in fragile environments.
A separate panel focused on migration and remigration trends, noting that the Middle East is increasingly interconnected with the Horn of Africa through displacement routes. Speakers observed a clear shift in European policy since 2015 toward stricter border enforcement and deportation measures, while returns from Europe remain limited compared to neighboring countries. Psychological barriers, economic devastation in countries of origin, and the stigma of unsuccessful return were identified as key obstacles to remigration.
The discussion on international aid criticized large bureaucratic development systems for fostering dependency and imposing ideological frameworks misaligned with local realities. Panelists called for a more pragmatic, locally grounded approach centered on infrastructure, civil society and measurable outcomes rather than prolonged top-down intervention.
The conference concluded that the fate of minorities is closely tied to the strength and structure of the state. Effective protection requires functioning institutions, a monopoly on legitimate force, and clear political will. The debates underscored that the region’s instability has direct consequences for Europe, making minority protection and governance reform strategic issues beyond the Middle East itself.
