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The latest Budapest Lecture, titled “Coups, Crisis, and the Cradle of Humanity: Migration Trends in Sub-Saharan Africa”, featured Olukayode Bakare, Visiting Fellow and Teaching Associate in the School of Government and International Affairs at Durham University, and Viktor Marsai in a thought-provoking discussion on the dynamics of migration from Sub-Saharan Africa. The conversation covered issues such as dictatorships, corruption, youth engagement, and great power politics, shedding light on the complex factors driving migration trends.
To fully grasp migration patterns, one must understand the broader societal and political landscapes, including government repression and economic hardship. Bakare emphasized the decisive role of poverty in forcing people to leave the continent. In countries like Mali and Chad, where over 50% of the population lives below the poverty line, migration becomes a necessity rather than a choice. However, much of this migration remains within Africa, as individuals move to neighboring countries in search of better opportunities.
For those migrating to Europe, economic motivations play a crucial role. The paths taken by these migrants vary, but irregular and illegal routes are particularly dangerous. Many attempt to cross the Sahara Desert—a perilous journey that claims countless lives—before facing the treacherous Mediterranean Sea. Despite efforts by Sahelian governments to discourage illegal migration, enforcement gaps persist, allowing these dangerous routes to remain active.
Turning to the issue of coups and political instability, Bakare highlighted the widespread problem of military intervention in African politics. The inability of civilian governments to provide essential services, enforce the rule of law, and establish constitutional order has led to a cycle of instability. Given these ongoing challenges, Bakare cautioned against expecting stability in Africa in the near future.
The discussion also explored Africa’s role in global power struggles, with the United States supporting democratic movements, while Russia and China have aligned themselves with authoritarian regimes. This geopolitical competition further complicates efforts to promote stability and governance reforms in the region.
On the subject of youth involvement, Bakare pointed out that Africa is the youngest continent in the world. While this presents an opportunity for economic growth and innovation, the lack of services and employment opportunities leaves many young people with limited options, often pushing them toward migration or crime.
As for potential solutions, Bakare stressed the importance of strengthening the rule of law, promoting democracy, and tackling corruption. Without these fundamental changes, migration patterns and political instability are likely to persist, affecting both Africa and the broader international community.
The Budapest Lecture once again provided a platform for critical discussions on pressing global issues, highlighting the urgent need for sustainable governance and economic strategies to address the challenges facing Sub-Saharan Africa.
