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On February 5, the Migration Research Institute (MRI) hosted a roundtable discussion at MCC, titled “The Perspectives of U.S.–Africa Relations under the Second Trump Administration.” Joshua Meservey, Senior Analyst at the Washington-based Hudson Institute, and Viktor Marsai, Executive Director of MRI, discussed the potential developments in U.S.–Africa relations. The discussion was moderated by Róbert Gönczi, analyst at the Migration Research Institute.
The participants first examined the expected main focus of U.S.–Africa relations. Joshua Meservey and Viktor Marsai agreed that the second Trump administration’s Africa policy will continue to be defined by security issues. This is due to the fact that several regions of the continent, including the Sahel and East Africa, remain hotspots for terrorism. Joshua Meservey noted that the new U.S. administration will continue the counterterrorism operations of the previous administration to weaken extremist groups. In addition to strengthening international security, these measures are also necessary due to the significant presence of American companies and workers in the region.
Viktor Marsai pointed out that although the U.S., like France, is being pushed out of the Sahel, trust in the United States remains strong in West Africa, where it continues to guarantee regional security. As a result, an American withdrawal from this area is unlikely.
Regarding the new U.S. administration’s communication strategy, Viktor Marsai argued that a transactional approach will replace the previous value-based stance, which could lead to more predictable and improved bilateral relations. This shift offers an opportunity for the United States to counterbalance the influence of China and Russia, both of which have secured key positions in the region. According to Marsai, while a pragmatic political approach will take precedence, personal relationships will also play a crucial role. Joshua Meservey added that alongside a more direct and confrontational communication style, the new U.S. leadership should set realistic goals that take into account the historical development and traditions of the region. For this reason, Trump’s second-term Africa policy is unlikely to focus on democracy promotion or cultural issues.
The discussion concluded with an examination of economic cooperation. Joshua Meservey and Viktor Marsai both observed that the United States has fallen significantly behind China in trade agreements with Africa. Given the intensifying global power competition, it is essential for the new U.S. administration to increase investments in Africa. Although America is expected to strengthen its position, a major breakthrough or the displacement of Chinese influence remains unlikely.
