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Significant social and economic changes are shaping the future of Central Asia, as personally experienced by researchers Blanka Kovács and Róbert Gönczi from the Migration Research Institute. They shared their foreign experiences in a lecture held at MCC Békéscsaba.
The region's main water sources, the Syr Darya and Amu Darya rivers, are in a critical state due to climate change and inefficient water management, Kovács Blanka began her report by stating. She added that the drying up of the Aral Sea has caused not only ecological but also health problems. Air pollution has worsened due to dust storms rising from the dried-up lakebed, further exacerbated by increasing traffic and industrial emissions. The economies of the countries in the region are still heavily dependent on irrigation-based agriculture, which requires large amounts of water. Although more efficient solutions like drip irrigation have recently been introduced, their spread remains limited.
The population of the region and the proportion of urban dwellers continue to grow and are expected to increase further in the coming decades, the researchers continued. The largest cities, particularly Tashkent, are undergoing rapid urbanization. However, these cities were not prepared for the population boom, and infrastructure—especially water supply—is facing serious challenges.
Kovács Blanka also highlighted that due to climate change and environmental challenges, migration has become one of the most significant social processes in the region. The countries have become labor exporters, as their local economies cannot provide enough jobs. People primarily migrate to Russia and the European Union for work, sending a large portion of their earnings back home, which is a vital source of income for many families. At the same time, migration has altered social structures. It is no longer just men leaving their homes; an increasing number of women are also seeking work abroad. This often leads to family conflicts, as children are left in the care of relatives, and returning women frequently struggle to reintegrate into traditional social norms.
The report also revealed that Central Asian countries maintain significant economic ties with China, whose influence is growing. This is particularly evident in Tajikistan, where Chinese investments have surged, supporting infrastructural development but also posing a risk of debt dependency. Chinese investors have also gained a significant foothold in the real estate market, constructing massive residential blocks that rapidly transform the urban landscape.
The increasing Chinese influence, the depletion of natural resources, migration, and urbanization are collectively shaping the region's future, presenting serious challenges for the affected countries. Decision-makers must find long-term, sustainable solutions to ensure the livelihood of the population and the stability of the region.
